Former ABC election analyst Antony Green has warned of a potential "electoral earthquake" as One Nation surges to unprecedented polling levels. Recent data shows the party at 22-26 per cent support – outpolling the Coalition for the first time and potentially "sweeping up seats all across rural and regional Australia."

Pauline Hanson 2017 Photo: jfish92/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

This isn't just polling noise. The Coalition is fractured, Barnaby Joyce has defected to One Nation, and the party has recruited former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi. Green identifies 25 seats where One Nation now sits within striking distance.

For the ABC, the implications are deeply concerning.

One Nation Targets based on Three-Candidate Preferred Count in 2025
source: One Nation’s Poll Surge – the first 25 seats to watch by Antony Green

A documented record of hostility

According to They Vote For You, Senator Pauline Hanson has voted consistently for decreasing ABC and SBS funding since 2016.

The rhetoric matches the voting record. In 2017, One Nation threatened to block budget measures unless ABC funding was slashed by $600 million. Then party whip, Brian Burston, stated: "It's about time we took a stand against the ABC."

Senator Hanson called for SBS to be privatised in a Facebook Live video, declaring "we don't need it." She described the ABC as having a "leftist attitude" and being "so left."

The 2018 deal

One Nation's most damaging intervention came in 2018, when Hanson secured concessions from the Turnbull government in exchange for supporting media ownership changes:

• An inquiry into the ABC's "competitive neutrality"
• Public disclosure of ABC staff salaries over $200,000
• Enhanced scrutiny of political impartiality

Media commentator Denis Muller warned the competitive neutrality inquiry was "camouflage for an inquiry whose real purpose is to put pressure on the ABC over its news service" – the part Hanson alleged was biased against her.

Current policy platform

One Nation's $90 billion budget savings plan commits to "review and reduce funding for arts and multicultural programs." While ABC cuts aren't specifically detailed, the pattern is clear. The plan includes abolishing the Department of Climate Change ($30 billion), the National Indigenous Australians Agency ($12.5 billion), and withdrawing from international bodies ($1 billion).

Given One Nation's documented ABC hostility and the lumping of arts funding with other programs to be cut, substantial public broadcasting reductions are a sure bet under any One Nation-influenced government.

The US Precedent: A Warning for Australia

We've seen this playbook recently. In 2025, Trump didn't just defund domestic public broadcasting ($1.1 billion to Corporation for Public Broadcasting, leading to closure) – he gutted America's entire international media presence.

In March 2025, Trump placed all 1,300 Voice of America journalists on leave and terminated grants to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Radio Free Asia – services reaching 427 million people in 50 languages. By October, Radio Free Asia shut down completely. Services to Tibet, Burma and Uighur communities were terminated. VOA, operating for 83 years, was silenced by one executive order.

The lesson: populist movements hostile to public broadcasting can completely dismantle institutions built over decades. ABC International faces similar vulnerabilities, with Indo-Pacific Broadcasting Strategy funding urgently needed yet chronically underfunded at a critical strategic moment.

What's at stake?

The ABC received $1.2 billion for 2025-26 – roughly "8 cents a day" per Australian. It provides services commercial media won't: 54 local radio stations serving regional Australia, emergency broadcasting during disasters, quality children's programming, investigative journalism, and Radio Australia.

Slash the funding, and these services disappear first.

Green's analysis shows that any potential gains will come from rural and regional seats - places where the ABC is a lifeline in times of crisis. Our job will be to remind conservative voters that commercial broadcasters have largely abandoned them and that if they want local voices and local stories, they need the ABC - and One Nation will not deliver that to them.

Even from the crossbench with just two senators in 2018, One Nation extracted multiple anti-ABC concessions. If they hold the balance of power – or enter coalition government – the threat becomes existential.

Editorial independence under threat

Beyond funding, One Nation threatens the ABC's editorial independence through accusations of bias, hostile inquiries, and pressure to change coverage. In the past the party has refused to speak to ABC journalists, claiming prejudice.

The ABC's charter guarantees independence and impartiality. Yet One Nation's 2018 deal showed how political interference via political pressure works: budget threats, inquiries, and campaigns questioning the broadcaster's legitimacy – all without changing the ABC Act.

Don't be complacent

Antony Green notes One Nation faces hurdles translating polls to seats. The party has struggled with disciplined campaigns and candidate quality.

But the polls are real. The momentum is building. One Nation's ABC hostility is well-documented.

The ABC has survived political hostility before. But it has never faced a party with One Nation's level of animosity.

Your ABC needs your voice now more than ever.

Phil Evans
Communications
ABC Friends